[풀영상] 파월 연준의장 기자회견 핵심 발언(영문)
SBS Biz 정윤형
입력2022.11.03 09:21
수정2022.11.03 10:41
"My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools that we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular without price stability. We will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. In addition, we're continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive stance of policy for some time."
"We think we have a ways to go. We have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to... before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive. And putting that in the statement and identifying that as a goal is an important step. And that's... it's meant to put that question really as the important one now going forward. I've also said that we think that the level of rates that we estimated in September, the incoming data suggests that that's actually going to be higher. And that's been the pattern. I mean, I would have little confidence that the forecast... if we made a forecast today, if we were doing SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today, you know, the pattern has been that one after another they go up and, you know, that will end when it ends, but there's no sense that... that, you know, that inflation is is coming down. It just... if you look at the... I have a table of the the last 12 months of 12 month readings and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So."
"Let me say this: It's... it's it is very premature to be thinking about pausing. So people, when they hear lags, they think about about a pause. It's very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have we have a ways to go. In out policy, we need ongoing rate hikes to get to that level of of sufficiently restrictive. And we don't of course, we don't really know exactly where that is. We have a sense and we'll write down in September... sorry, in the December meeting a new summary of economic projections, which updates that. But I would expect us to continue updated, based on what we're seeing with incoming data."
"I don't have any sense that we've over tightened or moved too fast. I think... I think it's been good and a successful program that we've gotten this far this fast. Remember though that we still think there's a need for ongoing rate increases, and we have some ground left to cover here and and cover we will."
"What we would expect by now to have seen is that as the really as the supply side problems have resolved themselves, we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now, long since by now. And it really hasn't... although it's... it's... actually it has come down, but it's not to the extent we had hoped. At the same time now U.S. services inflation, core services inflation moving up. And I just think that the inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year. Without question. That means that we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path to a soft landing."
"The broader picture is of an overheated labor market where demand substantially exceeds supply and job creation still exceeds, you know, the sort of the level that would hold the market where it is. So that's the picture. Do we see, you know, we keep looking for signs that sort of the beginning of a gradual softening is happening. You know, maybe that's there, but it's not it's not obvious to me because wages aren't coming down. They're just moving sideways at an elevated level, both ECI (Employment Cost Index) and average hourly earnings. You know, we want to see... we would love to see vacancies coming down, quits coming down. They are coming down. Vacancies are below their all-time high. But, you know, not by as much as we thought, because in that, you know, the data series is volatile. We never take any one reading. We always look at, you know, two or three. So it's a mixed picture. I don't... I don't see the case for real softening just yet. But we look at I guess I just... as I just showed you, we look at a very broad range of data on labor market."
"You know, we look at housing, of course, housing is significantly affected by these higher rates, which are really back where they were before the global financial crisis. They're not historically high, but they're much higher than they've been. And you're seeing housing activity decline. You're seeing housing prices growing at a faster rate and ,in some parts of the country, declining. You know, I would say housing was the housing market was very overheated for the couple of years after the pandemic, as demand increased and rates were low, we all know the stories of how overheated the housing market was, prices going up, many, many bidders, unknown conditions, that kind of thing. So the housing market needs to get back into a balance between supply and demand. We're well aware of the what's going on there. You know, from a financial stability standpoint, we didn't see in this cycle the kinds of poor credit underwriting that we saw before the global financial crisis. Housing credit was very carefully, much more carefully managed by the lenders. So it's a very different situation and doesn't present potential financial... It doesn't appear to present financial stability issues. But no, we do understand that that's really where a very big effect of our policies is."
"We think we have a ways to go. We have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to... before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive. And putting that in the statement and identifying that as a goal is an important step. And that's... it's meant to put that question really as the important one now going forward. I've also said that we think that the level of rates that we estimated in September, the incoming data suggests that that's actually going to be higher. And that's been the pattern. I mean, I would have little confidence that the forecast... if we made a forecast today, if we were doing SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today, you know, the pattern has been that one after another they go up and, you know, that will end when it ends, but there's no sense that... that, you know, that inflation is is coming down. It just... if you look at the... I have a table of the the last 12 months of 12 month readings and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So."
"Let me say this: It's... it's it is very premature to be thinking about pausing. So people, when they hear lags, they think about about a pause. It's very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have we have a ways to go. In out policy, we need ongoing rate hikes to get to that level of of sufficiently restrictive. And we don't of course, we don't really know exactly where that is. We have a sense and we'll write down in September... sorry, in the December meeting a new summary of economic projections, which updates that. But I would expect us to continue updated, based on what we're seeing with incoming data."
"I don't have any sense that we've over tightened or moved too fast. I think... I think it's been good and a successful program that we've gotten this far this fast. Remember though that we still think there's a need for ongoing rate increases, and we have some ground left to cover here and and cover we will."
"What we would expect by now to have seen is that as the really as the supply side problems have resolved themselves, we would have expected goods inflation to come down by now, long since by now. And it really hasn't... although it's... it's... actually it has come down, but it's not to the extent we had hoped. At the same time now U.S. services inflation, core services inflation moving up. And I just think that the inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year. Without question. That means that we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path to a soft landing."
"The broader picture is of an overheated labor market where demand substantially exceeds supply and job creation still exceeds, you know, the sort of the level that would hold the market where it is. So that's the picture. Do we see, you know, we keep looking for signs that sort of the beginning of a gradual softening is happening. You know, maybe that's there, but it's not it's not obvious to me because wages aren't coming down. They're just moving sideways at an elevated level, both ECI (Employment Cost Index) and average hourly earnings. You know, we want to see... we would love to see vacancies coming down, quits coming down. They are coming down. Vacancies are below their all-time high. But, you know, not by as much as we thought, because in that, you know, the data series is volatile. We never take any one reading. We always look at, you know, two or three. So it's a mixed picture. I don't... I don't see the case for real softening just yet. But we look at I guess I just... as I just showed you, we look at a very broad range of data on labor market."
"You know, we look at housing, of course, housing is significantly affected by these higher rates, which are really back where they were before the global financial crisis. They're not historically high, but they're much higher than they've been. And you're seeing housing activity decline. You're seeing housing prices growing at a faster rate and ,in some parts of the country, declining. You know, I would say housing was the housing market was very overheated for the couple of years after the pandemic, as demand increased and rates were low, we all know the stories of how overheated the housing market was, prices going up, many, many bidders, unknown conditions, that kind of thing. So the housing market needs to get back into a balance between supply and demand. We're well aware of the what's going on there. You know, from a financial stability standpoint, we didn't see in this cycle the kinds of poor credit underwriting that we saw before the global financial crisis. Housing credit was very carefully, much more carefully managed by the lenders. So it's a very different situation and doesn't present potential financial... It doesn't appear to present financial stability issues. But no, we do understand that that's really where a very big effect of our policies is."
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